Dead Polar Bear and Take the Red Pill, one of each
August 15

I haven't given either a Dead Polar Bear or Take the Red Pill Award for a while, so here's one of each.

The Dead Polar Bear Award is given to the conservative bloggers who are falling all over themselves to claim that revisions NASA has made in the analysis on annual average temperatures for the US show global warming isn't happening. You can find it on a bunch of blogs, two examples of which are Coyote Blog and Free Republic. The have long analyses, comb over all sorts of data, link to various climate change denier sites, and all miss one huge point: the data NASA revised is only for the US. Global warming is, well, global. Any one region of the world might be different from the average. If the arctic was taken alone, it would appear warming was much further along than expected. Some parts of the world might be cooler. What matters is the global average is going up. Amazingly, both linked blogs and others I saw completely missed it. They did link to this table of data from NASA, but going up a level in URL brought me to this page, where NASA is still showing global temperatures rising. Oh, and about the change for the US: it's dinky. Temperatures were revised .15 degrees centigrade. A denier blogger noticed a mathematical problem in NASA's data and correctly discovered the error. A good bit of math, but supposedly this debunks all global warming theory. It's classic conspiracy theory stuff that gives "conspiracy theory" a bad name: links to sites sharing the same opinion, excruciating examination of the data, an assumption all contradictory data is false, an utter lack of actual science, and requirement that the conspiracy include a huge number of people keeping quiet --- in this case almost every scientist on the planet --- while a few outsiders have worked it all out. Now they can work out where to keep their Dead Polar Bear Award.

The Take the Red Pill Award goes to Mike Evans, militant Christian advocate of war with Iran. I violating my guidelines for this award, because Evans is making a bunch of money by working up Christian fundamentalists who have the inclination to believe the bible predicts current and, more important, upcoming events, and who belive the end of the world will come if only we set up the requisite conditions, like the annexing of the West bank and Gaza to Israel. Normally this award is just for believers, because I always suspect money-makers like Evans are just ripping off the credulous and don't believe a word of it. I made an exception because it appears an attack on Iran is getting more likely. Evans appears to be a staunch ally of the acting vice-president in this, and the acting vice-president has enormous influence with the acting president no matter how often he's wrong. With Cheney getting to Bush daily in the White House, and Evans playing the religion angle, this Take the Red Pill Award comes with a prayer that Bush will listen to someone sane.

Molnau is still here
August 14

Remember the good ol' days, when disgraced politicians actually resigned? Sometimes they apologized, sometimes said they need to fight the charges, or sometimes they admitted they were under a cloud and needed to move on so someone else could get their work done. Now Rep. William Jefferson stays in Congress despite being indicted, Sen. David Vitter admits hiring prostitutes (the madam gets prosecuted, but not him) Donald Rumsfeld hangs on years after screwing up Iraq, Alberto Gonzales has congressmen calling him a liar to his face during hearings, but won't go.

Now we have Carol Molnau, who has failed as miserably as it's possible for a transportation commissioner to fail, but she's still there. She'll blame other people, deny seeing the reports, deny hearing the warnings, and obstruct solutions while offering none, but she won't go. Now she'll get to oversee the construction of a vital bridge built so fast that it will be ready by election day next year. Whether such a rush job will stand as long as the collapsed bridge it replaces is another question.

Drazkowski wins special election
August 8

The GOP candidate won today's special election. My thought that low turnout elections no longer help Republicans might still be right, but it's at least unproven. The DFL winning streak is broken. I don't know what this election means without being able to talk to any voters or at least read some reports of those who did, or at least see an exit poll, but just for fun I'll guess anyway, recognizing that special elections make for a very small sample (though the ones over the last couple years turned out to be quite telling). It could be that the low turnout of special elections still helps Republicans, but it could be this is just a Republican district, as was widely assumed. Maybe the bridge collapse isn't that strong an issue after all, or maybe it's just not enough to swing an election DFL in a district that's heavily Republican. The DFL might rightly point out that the GOP incumbent also got at least 60% of the vote for seven elections, so for the DFLer to get 47% is pretty good. Or that could be the effect of no incumbent for the first time since 1980. Maybe the DFL candidate needed to be clearer about her positions. She wouldn't commit on a gas tax, just say she was open to it, and her positions on her web site were general. A staunch liberal like me likes to ascribe losses to not being liberal enough, but that's my bias speaking (not that I'm not right, just recognizing the bias). My theory, the one I feel sure about, is that rural areas are no longer safely Republican. They aren't Democratic, but Democrats can compete, and there is still a danger for Republicans that they will be reduced to a suburban party.

Then again, I've told other Democrats that momentum doesn't carry over from one election to the next, even though I'm gainsaid by the special elections Democrats won between 2004 and 2006, as well as the success of liberal in the 2005 elections. I can also point to how the big GOP win of 1994 was partly reversed in 1996, and the drubbing of 1998 didn't mean a Democratic cakewalk in 2000. So, don't assume 2006 means 2008 is bound to go our way.

Bridge collapse has electoral repercussions already
August 6

There might be electoral repercussions already from the bridge collapse. Minnesota state house district 28B has a special election tomorrow. The Republican, Steve Drazkowski, still refuses to raise the gasoline tax or make a substantial investment in fixing infrastructure. He wants to to spend just $2 billion, which sounds like a lot until you consider the extent of the needed repairs, and he doesn't want to raise taxes. He wants to pay for it all by bonding, to be paid off, with interest, by future revenue to flow magically from the imagination of taxophobic conservatives. This is his interesting definition of "common sense and personal responsibility". I wonder how many bridges have to collapse before his common sense kicks in. I wonder how it constitutes personal responsibility to pass on costs to the future with no notion of how to pay. His position might seem a common one, and it is. It's the typical Republican position on transportation policy. If you want to see the GOP's transportation policy, it's laying in the Mississippi. And guess what river this district lies upon and has bridges over? Think 28B voters might be aware of that?

According to this profile of the DFL candidate, Linda Pfeilsticker, the roads in southeastern Minnesota are among the state's worst. She hasn't specifically endorsed a gas tax increase, but is open to it.

The DFL has a winning streak in special elections. The sudden prominence of infrastructure as an issue has Republicans defensive, trying to explain how their many years of refusing to fix anything doesn't mean that's their policy that collapsed, while Democrats are mad as hell over their defeated attempts to fix things and the attitude of Pawlenty and his party who couldn't compromise, or even disagree without insults. Since turnout for special elections is so tiny, even a few voters moved to turn out would make a difference. It's another test of a theory of mine, that low turnout is no longer advantageous to Republicans. Pawlenty still believes the conventional wisdom, thus why he schedules these special elections for odd days when turnout is likely to be low. I'm tempted to tell Pawlenty to keep it up, except that as a liberal, I consider greater participation in democracy a virtue, even above winning elections.

More proof Republicans can't run a government
August 6

Want more proof Republicans can't run a government, and don't care whose lives are screwed up as a result? Applicants for Social Security disability benefits are waiting two years for a hearing. These are people who can't work, who may not have any source of income. The problem is the Social Security Administration has been downsized and just doesn't have the personnel to keep up with cases. This is the tangible effect of Republican government:

Gerald Keyes, 59, of Milwaukee, suffered a stroke this year and is nearly blind. A retired sanitation worker whose savings are running out, Keyes has been waiting for over a year for a decision in his case.

"I need to have this approved quickly, or I will be in the Rescue Mission," he said.

Part of why we're so ready to blame conservatives
August 4

Conservatives have been saying no one should be blames for the bridge collapse, or let's hold off on figuring that out. You can see it in the letters to the editor and the right wing blogs, and it's entirely understandable. No one wants to be blamed when something big goes wrong. Certainly no one sleeps easily when told people died, and it's your fault. It might appear that not only are Democrats/liberals blaming Republicans/conservatives, but doing so with a little gusto behind the "we told you so" sentiment. This paragraph from this story in the Saturday StarTribune explains perfectly why that's so:

Pawlenty's opposition to a gasoline tax increase was long-standing and adamant. In 2005 he also vetoed a gas tax increase, asking of DFLers, "How dumb can they be?" Earlier this year he said DFLers "have simply been obsessed" with a gas tax.

Pawlenty couldn't just disagree, nor seek some compromise. Those statements sum up his governorship. DFLers have characterized his attitude as "my way or the highway" except now we know the highway might not be an option either. The first governor to shut down his state's government has been a Bush mini-me when it comes to working with the other party. So now, when the bridge collapse is clearest example I know of where one side was right and one was wrong, I notice not only that Pawlenty and the taxophobic conservatives were wrong, but I notice it while remembering that me and people like me have been called stupid, traitors, weak, dumb, and I'm sure a few I'm forgetting right now, but I don't forget the attitude, and I have no problem throwing it back in their faces now. So yes conservatives, Republicans, wingnuts, Taxpayers League, I blame you. You and your rich-boy backers appealed to greed with a bunch of nonsense, you fought any attempt to solve a serious problem because no-tax politics kept you in power, and people died because of it. That's harsh, but there's no getting around it. You want forgiveness? You want the finger-pointing to stop? Then raise the revenue necessary to fix the problem.

We don't have to assume --- now we know
August 3

Now we know our suspicions were correct, or at least my suspicions --- too many claimed to know what they couldn't, but they were right. It was neglect that brought down the 35W bridge. Employees of MnDOT were concerned about the metal in the bridge according to this article that greeted me on this morning's front page. OK, now we know. Something that I suspect presages how this story will go is those employees felt that had to be anonymous. The Pawlenty administration has shown some of the reflexive secrecy and authoritarianism as the Bush administration: not the same degree at all, but enough that I think I see how this will go. There will be dribbles of information with a few big pieces, amounting to the administration was warned about bridges in general and that bridge in particular, but ignored those warnings for the sake of the taxophobes. Get a load of this:

A construction industry official who met with MnDOT about shortcomings on the I-35W bridge told the Star Tribune that there have been ongoing concerns among some MnDOT employees about the safety of this and other similar bridges.

"There were people over there that were deathly afraid that this kind of tragedy was going to be visited on us," the industry official said. "There were people in the department that were screaming to have these replaced."MnDOT has been trying to move these 'fracture critical' bridges up in their [budget] sequencing so something like this wouldn't happen," the source said.

Now there are indications plans to repair the bridge last year got shelved. A commenter on the Rachel Maddow Show blog claiming to be a MnDOT employee says, "Our Bridge inspectors have been complaining for a few years now that we are in a crisis relative to the condition of our bridges, with no funding to properly maintain them." I don't know this person, but the post has lots of details, and I follow state politics enough to know enough are right to make me believe this person, even if I'm attaching this caveat to this source.

The point being that we now know the collapse was caused by the neglect of the nation's infrastructure. It isn't just a Minnesota phenomenon since there are reports from all over the nation of infrastructure issues. However, states have the main responsibilities for freeway bridges, and conservatives have steadfastly resisted even small tax increases to repair the deterioration, not just Pawlenty and his Taxpayers League handlers, but also the Republicans in the state legislature who voted down infrastructure spending and upheld Pawlenty's vetoes. In fact, in a very unlucky bit of timing, one taxophobe organization, The Heartland Institute, put out an article praising Pawlenty for his vetoes last May of the transportation bill with the gas tax increase and the "emergency" bonding bill. The article came out Wednesday morning. Wednesday night, Pawlenty's policy collapsed in the river. Pawlenty, who is a smart politician, no doubt about that, has said a special session is possible and a gas tax increase is back on the table. Maybe he wised up, or maybe he realized how embarrassing this will be with the national GOP convention to be held here a year from now. Or maybe, after he made such a political show out of vetoing the entire bonding bill when he could have used his line item veto, and such a big deal out of stopping even a 5¢ gas tax increase, he knows how that looks with the state's busiest bridge falling down. His VP chances might have just dropped like a bridge.

It could be awkward too for Carol Molnau, our lieutenant governor. Normally lieutenant governors just wait for the governor to die, until they make their own failed run at higher office. Molnau however is also the transportation commissioner. Nothing wrong with that, depending on how she does he job. That last part suddenly looks sticky, since it appears she was told last year the bridge needed fixing, and opted to keep inspecting without fixing the discovered flaws.

The republican tactic to watch out for, I saw it twice tonight, is to suddenly leap to the defense of MnDOT employees. The odd thing nobody is accusing the employees, but we're supposed to start thinking that way, or why else would they need defending? It's a ruse, and probably a planned one. Molnau did it today at a press conference, while state Rep. Mary Liz Holberg did it on Almanac tonight. It's like a kid knocking over the cookie jar, and telling Mom, "don't blame Jimmy, I'm can't beleive he would do that," in hopes Mom will suspect Jimmy. The correct response to Molnau and Holberg is, "I don't blame the employees. I blame you."

We still don't yet know why the bridge collapsed
August 2

I repeat my advice of yesterday, which I've posted in comments on some other blogs, don't assume the bridge collapsed because of delayed maintenance. I'm hearing that in multiple places, and that's fine if it always comes in an "if" statement, but anyone stating the cause is way ahead of where they have any reason to be. I will add this to my advice, as a reason for caution, implied I suppose but now I'll state it: if we're wrong about the cause, and it turns out the neglect of our infrastructure wasn't the issue here, the whole cause of maintaining and improving our roads, bridges etc. is undermined. Getting state and federal governments to invest will be harder than ever. If suspicions that neglect was the problem are verified, then by all means, get angry. I will. I'll have no problem pushing infrastructure higher up the list of issues, and I'll have no problem with it being emotionally charged. People were killed --- I think that can safely be taken seriously. I learned only today that the bridge was the busiest in the state. It still isn't exactly New Orleans, but it might have a galvanizing effect on politics anyway, especially in Minnesota, but nationally to a lesser degree. If the cause was refusal to raise taxes to keep up our infrastructure, Pawlenty's veto and the Republicans unanimous vote to sustain the veto (even the ones who voted to pass the bill) will look interesting next election, with the House DFL close to win a veto-proof majority and Pawlenty on the short list to be VP.

We don't yet know why the bridge collapsed
August 1

The news tonight has been filled with the collapse of the 35W bridge over the Mississippi late in rush hour. Our cell phones sometimes stopped getting signals, presumably from Twin Cities residents checking on each other. Our land line always worked, so I'm glad we haven't yet gone cell phone-only. So far seven are known dead, a number that will probably climb, which is part of my point. Breaking stories like this are always wrong to start with, and indeed it was at least two hours after the collapse that a local TV station mentioned that lanes were closed for construction, which is why traffic was bumper to bumper. So just withhold judgement on what happened. Given that I've been critical of our governor and legislative Republicans for letting their taxophobia delay need transportation projects, I naturally ask if delayed maintenance caused the collapse, but absolutely I don't know that yet. I do know that if that was indeed the problem, I'll feel I have every right to yell at the taxophobes much more loudly than I did over the Crosstown Commons or Hwy 53. But no yelling yet. Maybe something went horribly wrong during construction work, or maybe we'll learn something new about how bridge materials react to certain circumstances.

Siegelman prosecution and election fraud
August 1

Sometimes you're glad you said "probably" and admitted not knowing something. When I wrote about the Don Siegelman case in June, I said, "That wouldn't mean Siegelman is innocent. He might be guilty as charged. I don't know. It probably isn't like the Georgia Thompson case, the railroading of an innocent for partisan purposes. However, the damage Gonzogate has done is now, even if Siegelman did it, we have to wonder."

We can stop wondering. As more has come out, it has looked more and more like the Thompson case, with the only difference being that Siegelman was actually a governor instead of state employee, and the election fraud goes beyond using US attorneys to make voters think someone is corrupt when they aren't, and into vote theft through voting machines.

This is a brief version. The long version can be found at Harper's Magazine's blog No Comment, run by reporter Scott Horton, who has been doing most of the digging on the story. He's been reporting the pieces as he finds them, though I imagine an article is coming when the investigation is far enough along. He has also explained the story in interviews, including on Ring of Fire and Rachel Maddow. Essentially, when it appeared Siegelman had narrowly defeated Republican Bob Riley, and then a voting machine under GOP control suddenly switched a bunch of votes. You'll have to believe a machine screwed up just the one race, and all the errors benefited one candidate, who happened to be the candidate of the election officials. When Siegelman was contesting the result, it appears that Alabama's two US attorneys, one of whom happened to be married to a senior Riley campaign staffer and the other was their family friend, decided after consulting with Karl Rove (or being directed by Rove? that's one of the key questions) to start investigating Siegelman. Maybe they were just hoping to pressure Siegelman into dropping his challenge, but in any case they took their case to court, where it got thrown out --- so they changed jurisdictions and tried again. This time, they got a judge, Mark Everett, who was a career Republican and acted like it. He convicted Siegelman in what appears to be biased trial, and made his political point by having Siegelman manacled and paraded before the cameras. Horton says in his interviews they he spoke to many prosecutors about the case and they all said they wouldn't think about taking it on. The charge was bribery. Prosecutors said Siegelman gave Richard Scrushy, CEO of HealthSouth, a post on an advisory medical board in exchange for a big donation to a fund promoting a state lottery, which Siegelman was pushing for. They ignored that Siegelman received no money, that Scrushy's job didn't pay, and he had been appointed to the job by prior governors. As we saw with Georgia Thompson, convicted in a case the appeals court called "beyond thin", biased prosecutors and judges can get a jury to convict in really weak cases. Siegelman received a much harsher sentence than a Republican governor convicted of the same crime including keeping the money, and he is in federal prison --- in Oklahoma, far from lawyers, and after being moved around to different prisons.

That's a summary of what Horton has in detail. I just want to point up a few things. One is that if this can happen to a governor, it can happen to any of us. Just get on the wrong side of Republicans with power. At least two people have been the victims of the politicization of justice to such a degree that they went to prison without being free pending appeal --- even Scooter got to negotiate the terms of his entering prison. Also, these prosecutions weren't mere personal vendetta, but intended to affect election results. These scandals are the flip side of the core of the US attorneys firing scandal, where they were fired for not using their positions in partisan ways. Now we have an idea of why the attorneys were weren't fired got to keep their jobs. Finally, this connects to the problem with election fraud through the use of voting machines made by and controlled by partisans, in this case apparently reversing the result of a gubernatorial election. If you've followed the election fraud story, you already know there were suspicions, almost completely ignored in the news media, that multiple elections were stolen in 2002, partly accounting for the Republicans' apparently winning so many congressional and gubernatorial elections. If these allegations are new to you, start with the odd results in Georgia, which I've mentioned here and also here.